Tuesday, October 16, 2012


1. In spite of all the pollster protests that their samples "just come out that way" with D+9 and D+11 samples - miraculously, none of their final national polls will have samples with a bigger slant than D+4.

2. None of the final polls from the 'true' swing states (i.e. Ohio, Florida, Colorado, Iowa, Virginia) will have samples larger than D+4 either. There won't be any that bear any resemblance to the D+11 fantasy Ohio poll that NBC/Marist recently put out. Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan poll samples will all be D+single digits.

3. Due to the remarkable decrease in the "Garbage In" factor, Nate Silver's final model will show Romney's chances of winning being greater than 50%, but it will still overstate Obama's position.

4. Any national poll that DOES have a D+4 or D+3 sample will understate Romney's winning margin by at least 2 points (including Rasmussen, if he is still insisting on using that weighting system at that time).

5. Republicans will have 50 or more Senate seats, and there will be very little change in the House.